19 Aug · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1455
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jesiek
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1505
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Jesiek goes over total as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)