19 Aug · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1249
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1306
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)