19 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1340
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1346
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.