19 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1639
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sklensky
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1638
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H42-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.