19 Aug · 12:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1305
FormLLWWL
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1466
FormLWWWL
33%
67%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~76 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
25%
2-3
17%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+161
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+161)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)