19 Aug · 17:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1547
FormLLLWW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Smolka
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
61%
39%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~77 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
1-3
15%
3-2
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H23-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-16)