19 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1466
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Juszczyk
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1484
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Ruszkiewicz goes over total as underdog 65% (43)
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H24-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.