19 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1544
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1570
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H20-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.