19 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1305
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1311
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.