19 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1337
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1358
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~82 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H62-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.