19 Aug · 22:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1559
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Koczyba
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1480
FormLWWWW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruszkiewicz🌟Ruszkiewicz goes over total as underdog 65% (43)
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 81% · 1.23· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H29-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-2)