19 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1661
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1669
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H21-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.