19 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1327
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1358
FormWLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H41-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.