20 Aug · 04:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1477
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1550
FormLWWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H32-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-20)