20 Aug · 03:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1499
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1550
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H26-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-21)