20 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1678
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oracz
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1667
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H34-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.