20 Aug · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1708
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Warzecha
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1667
FormWLWLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H26-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-18)