20 Aug · 06:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1499
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Glanowski
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1503
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🌟Glanowski stays under total as favourite 64% (25)
Fair odds · Glanowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H40-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.