20 Aug · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1447
FormLWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dabrowski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1364
FormLWLWW
59%
41%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 67% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H39-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-31)