20 Aug · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1464
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Zochniak
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
43%
57%
🌟Zochniak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (29)
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)