20 Aug · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1341
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1364
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H18-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.