20 Aug · 07:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1458
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1519
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H57-52
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (57-52)