20 Aug · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1576
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Adamus
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1543
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H36-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.