20 Aug · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1536
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koczyba
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1521
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H36-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.