20 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1340
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1370
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H29-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.