20 Aug · 20:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PG
🇵🇱Pawel Gasiorski
ELO 1738
FormWLWWL
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Gasiorski
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1598
FormLLLWW
65%
35%
Fair odds · Gasiorski
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~74 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+140
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+140)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)