20 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1587
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Adamus
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1585
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 24% · 4.20· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H33-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.