21 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1463
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fomin
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1454
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.