21 Aug · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1327
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1332
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.