21 Aug · 06:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1347
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1433
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+86
H2H24-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-19)