21 Aug · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1551
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1588
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.