21 Aug · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1459
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1421
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Mugowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H15-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.