21 Aug · 07:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1434
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tobiasz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1464
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.