21 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1322
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1351
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H18-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.