21 Aug · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1660
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Poliniewicz
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1623
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H84-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.