21 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1335
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1341
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H10-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.