21 Aug · 08:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1494
FormLLLWW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Balcerzak
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1630
FormWLWWW
35%
65%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 75% (16)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~78 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+136
H2H17-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+136)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-4)