21 Aug · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1454
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1461
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.