21 Aug · 10:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1430
FormLLLLW
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1578
FormLLWWW
34%
66%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~76 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+148
H2H21-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+148)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-13)