21 Aug · 10:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1349
FormWLWLW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1453
FormWWWWW
39%
61%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 79% · 1.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~77 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
22%
3-1
15%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H28-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-6)