21 Aug · 11:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1438
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pelka
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1463
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H8-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.