21 Aug · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1489
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Durak
KD
🇵🇱Kamil Durak
ELO 1519
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Durak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.