21 Aug · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1432
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1472
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Misiak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H8-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.