21 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1626
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Balcerzak
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1577
FormLWLWW
55%
45%
🌟Balcerzak goes over total as favourite 75% (16)
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H71-68
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (71-68)