22 Aug · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1363
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Slosarczyk
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1369
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sawicki🌟Sawicki covers set handicap as underdog 74% (23)
Fair odds · Slosarczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H33-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.