21 Aug · 19:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1365
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Fira
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1418
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H55-47
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (55-47)