21 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1331
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1351
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.