21 Aug · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1403
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tobiasz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1462
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 77% · 1.30· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H21-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-12)