21 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1568
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krutak
MW
🇵🇱Marcin Wozniczka
ELO 1556
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.