21 Aug · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1683
FormWWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1613
FormLWWWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H29-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-27)